TEN REASONS FOR SANDY

TEN REASONS FOR THIS SANDY

1. Sheer size

A TYPICAL HURRICANE SPANS ANYWHERE FROM 30 KM TO 100 KM FROM ITS EYE TO THE POINT WHERE WINDS ARE HIGHEST, SAYS RYAN MULLIGAN, A COASTAL ENGINEERING EXPERT AT QUEEN’S UNIVERSITY WHO STUDIES HURRICANES. AS OF MONDAY NIGHT, HURRICANE SANDY MEASURED 280 KM, ALMOST TRIPLE THE AVERAGE SIZE. SO WHILE SANDY IS ONLY A CATEGORY 1 STORM ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE, WHICH RUNS UP TO CATEGORY 5, THAT FIGURE IS DECEPTIVE: THE CATEGORY OF A STORM DOES NOT ALWAYS DIRECTLY RELATE TO HOW MUCH DAMAGE IT WILL CAUSE, WARNS THE U.S. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

2. Storm path

WHILE FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE OFTEN BATTERED BY HURRICANES, IT’S RARE FOR STORMS TO CHURN INLAND NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, A SPIT OF LAND HALFWAY UP NORTH CAROLINA’S SHORE, SAYS MULLIGAN. STORMS THAT PASS THE CAPE TYPICALLY BEND EASTWARD AND HEAD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SOMETIMES CLIPPING NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND ALONG THE WAY. BUT AN UNUSUAL CONFIGURATION OF LAND-BASED WEATHER SYSTEMS IS INTERACTING WITH SANDY, DRAWING THE STORM OVER NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY.

3. Double-whammy

PART OF THAT UNUSUAL CONFIGURATION IS THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COLD AND RAIN TO TORONTO ALL WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM IS DOING MUCH MORE THAN HELPING TO DRAW SANDY INLAND, HOWEVER: IT’S ALSO FEEDING POWER TO THE HURRICANE. “THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION WHERE THE TWO ARE KIND OF MERGING,” SAYS PETER KIMBELL, A WARNING PREPAREDNESS METEOROLOGIST WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA. THE “FRANKENSTORM” — NOW A POST-TROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A HURRICANE, BUT NO LESS DANGEROUS — IS EXPECTED SIT OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR DAYS, DUMPING DOWN RAINFALL.

4. Freezing cold

IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF SOME U.S. STATES ARE EXPECTING UP TO THREE FEET OF SNOWFALL. COMBINED WITH POWER OUTAGES, THE COLD COULD BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS. WITH SNOW ALREADY FALLING, THE GOVERNOR OF NORTH CAROLINA DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR 24 COUNTIES ON MONDAY.

5. Impact zone

SANDY’S UNUSUAL ROUTE PUTS UPWARDS OF 50 MILLION PEOPLE ALONG ITS STORM PATH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THAT INCLUDES THE MOST DENSELY POPULATED AREA OF THE U.S. “THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS PARTICULARLY BAD,” SAYS MULLIGAN. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WREAK HAVOC AS FAR NORTH AS CHATHAM, MASSACHUSETTS, AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CHINCOTEAGUE, VIRGINIA. “IT’S GOING TO CAUSE A STORM SURGE WHICH WILL BE (THE) HIGHEST OR WORST-CASE IN NEW YORK HARBOUR, WHICH IS NOT A GOOD THING,” HE SAYS. THE AREA IS LOW-LYING AND FILLED WITH INFRASTRUCTURE.

6. Storm surge

THE NEW YORK HARBOUR STORM SURGE IS FORECAST TO PEAK ANYWHERE FROM 1.8 METRES TO 3.3 METRES. NYC’S HARBOUR IS FUNNEL-SHAPED AND ONLY 5 METRES TO 7 METRES DEEP IN MANY PLACES, WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE WAVES TO AMPLIFY, SAYS MULLIGAN. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLED THE SURGE “LIFE-THREATENING,” AND CITY OFFICIALS WARNED THAT A DELUGE OF SALT WATER COULD CORRODE SUBWAY BRAKES. OTHER COASTAL AREAS WILL ALSO BE BATTERED. A BIG CHUNK OF ATLANTIC CITY’S BOARDWALK WAS WASHED AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

7. High tide

A FULL MOON OCCURRED MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PHASE OF THE LUNAR CYCLE MEANS TIDES ARE HIGHER THAN USUAL, CONTRIBUTING TO THE HUGE STORM SURGE.

8. Leafy peril

WHILE TREES IN ONTARIO ARE MOSTLY BARE BY NOW, FURTHER SOUTH THE LEAVES ARE STILL ON THEIR BRANCHES. THAT’S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LEAVES HELP CATCH WIND, CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT TREES WILL BLOW DOWN AND CAUSE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND CARS, SAYS GEOFF COULSON, ANOTHER WARNING PREPAREDNESS METEOROLOGIST AT ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

9. Already deadly

WHILE MUCH OF THE WORLD’S ATTENTION IS FIXATED ON NORTH AMERICA, SANDY HAS ALREADY PROVED LETHAL, KILLING 69 PEOPLE IN THE CARIBBEAN. IN SANTIAGO, CUBA’S SECOND-LARGEST CITY, RESIDENTS REMAINED WITHOUT POWER OR RUNNING WATER FOR THE FOURTH STRAIGHT DAY. WITH 11 PEOPLE DEAD, SANDY WAS CUBA’S DEADLIEST STORM IN SEVEN YEARS.

10. Not going anywhere

SANDY IS ALSO MOVING PARTICULARLY SLOWLY. “SANDY AND WHAT’S LEFT OF HER IS GOING TO LINGER,” SAYS COULSON. ANY ISSUES THE STORM IS CREATING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIGHT NOW AREN’T GOING TO DIMINISH SOON, HE ADDS: “THEY’RE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A LOT OF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.” EVEN THE CANADIAN RED CROSS AND ONTARIO’S MINISTRY OF COMMUNITY SAFETY IS URGING ANYONE IN THE STORM’S PATH TO GET TOGETHER ENOUGH SUPPLIES FOR 72 HOURS.